理解控制（中英文对照版）
2009-11-15 07:56:12 来源： 作者：
TAKE CONTROL 23, 1999 - 02:50 pm 药渣 译
In my mind, control is an important issue that has a great deal to do with understanding the process of trading and doing it successfully. There many parts of the trading process where exercising control is relatively easy and other parts of the process where control is much more difficult. For example, the entry into a trade is a point where we are very much in control. We set the conditions and the market must meet our conditions or we will simply refuse to participate. This is clearly the point in the trading process where we can exercise maximum control.
理解控制 23, 1999 - 02:50 pm
在我看来，交易中的控制能力是一个非常重要的问题，不理解这一点就无法很好的理解交易过程，也无法成功的交易。在交易过程中，有些部分相对较容易控制，有些部分相对较难控制。例如，我们能非常容易的控制入市时机。我们可以设置一些条件，当市场满足我们的条件时我们就入市，反之我们就拒绝交易。很明显，在交易过程的入市时机选者上我们拥有最大的控制权。
词汇笔记：
there
1)在那里，到那里
There he found the lamp. 他在那里找到了灯
2)在这一点上，在这里
There I cannot agree with you. 在这一点上我不能同意你的意见。Don’t stop there—tell me what happened next! 别在这里停下，告诉我后来怎样了！There you are mistaken.在这一点上你可错了。
I can recall attending some lectures many years ago by George Lane (of stochastic indicator fame) when he revealed to the audience a list of items that he wanted to see before he entered a trade. His pre-entry checklist had twenty-seven conditions on it. Being a skeptic of complex trading strategies I don't recall what any of these twenty seven items were except I'm sure at least one of them was the stochastic indicator. At the point of carefully reviewing his checklist George was very much in control of the situation and if the market didn't do exactly what he wanted he didn't trade.
我还记得几年前我参加过乔治做过的一些讲座（关于很有名气的随机指标），他向听众们揭示了他在进入一笔交易前，市场必须满足的条件清单，一共有27项。由于我对复杂的交易策略持怀疑态度，现在我记不起27项中的任何一项，但至少有一点我能肯定的是其中有一项是随机指标。通过仔细检查条件清单，乔治可以非常完美的控制入场时机，如果市场不满足要求，他就不交易。
词汇笔记：
stochastic 有可能的；随机的
skeptic=sceptic 持怀疑态度的人；怀疑论者
As I often point out in my lectures, entries are the easy part of trading. This is because each of us has maximum control at this point. We can exercise as much or as little control as we like. George Lane can require every one of his twenty-seven criteria and I can require my usual two setups and a trigger condition. However the control situation changes drastically once we enter the trade. Our ability to control all the elements of the trade now becomes much more difficult and far from absolute. Once we enter a futures trade we know that we must exit that trade within a limited period of time or we are going to be in trouble because the contract will expire. Even stock traders who don't need to be concerned about expiring contracts must exit their positions correctly if they wish to maximize their profits.
我经常在演讲中指出，入市是交易中最容易的部分。这是因为我们每一个人在这一点上拥有最大的控制力，我们想怎么控制就怎么控制，可以控制的多一点，也可以控制的少一点。乔治要求市场必须满足他的27项规则，我要求市场必须满足我通常使用的两个参数和一个启动条件。然而一旦我们进入交易，控制情况就会急剧变化。我们控制交易中所有元素的能力变得越来越差，几乎不可能做到完全的控制力。一旦我们进入期货市场，我们知道在一定时间内我们必须退出市场，因为期货合约是有期限的。即使股票交易者无须考虑合约期限，如果他们要达到最大化赢利，也必须在合适的时机退出交易。
Exits are much more difficult than entries because we can not simply reverse the entry process and require that the market do thus and such. Once we are in the trade George Lane and I can both throw our lists out the window because we can no longer dictate our terms to the market. The market is now in control and we must be prepared to react to whatever the market does. The market can do anything it wants once we have entered our trade and we can be assured that the market doesn't care what conditions might be on our list or what our preferences might be. Once we enter the trade we are at the mercy of the market the market operates according to its own list and that list of possibilities is much larger than George Lane's meager list of twenty-seven items. The market's options are limitless. It can do anything it wants whenever it wants and somehow we must be prepared to deal with it. Where is our control now?
退出比进入更困难，因为我们无法简单的让让交易过程逆转，也不能让市场这样或那样走。一旦进入交易，我和乔治都可以把我们的入市条件清单扔到窗外，因为我们再也不能向市场下命令了。现在由市场来控制我们，现在我们必须准备好应对市场的任何变化。一旦我们进入交易，市场可以做他想做的任何事，我们所能确定的是市场永远也不会关心我们的条件清单或者我们的喜好。一旦我们进入市场，我们就得任由市场摆布，市场根据他自己的条件清单来走，其清单的可能数目是无限的，相比之下乔治的27条显得微不足道。市场的选择是无限的，无论在任何时候它都可以做它想做的事，我们必须以某种发式准备好应对措施。现在我们能控制什么？
词汇笔记
meager=meagre 贫乏的，不足的；瘦的。
As we hold our trade we must be prepared for big moves against us and big moves in our favor. (Surprisingly the big moves against us are much easier to deal with than the moves in our favor. We will talk more about this in just a minute.) Among the market's limitless possibilities are gaps, reversals, limit moves, whipsaws, and perhaps worst of all, boring sideways action that makes us wish we were trading something else. The market may present us with inside days, outside days, reversal days, key reversal days, high volume days, low volume days, expanding ranges, contracting ranges, acceleration, and deceleration. We can be faced with days that are so big that the chart looks like a propeller on the end of a stick or days that are so small they just look like dots.
当我们持有仓位的时候，我们必须准备好市场可能出现的不利于我们的大幅运动或有利于我们的大幅运动（令人惊奇的是，与有利的大幅运动相比，我们能更好的处理不利的大幅运动。我们马上就会解释这一点）。市场有无限种可能，比如缺口、逆转、天量、地量、波动区间夸大，波动区间缩小等等（原文有很多术语，我不会翻译，略之。如果有知道的还望指点）
Because we have to be prepared for all this and more, it should be no wonder that our exit strategies are often much more complex than our entry strategies. We need to have solutions ready for any problem the market might send our way. As I mentioned earlier, the losses are rarely the problem because we can control those by simply setting a loss point and closing out the trade if the loss point is hit. Here again we are facing an issue of control and it is comforting to know that we do have a great deal of control over our losses. If we want to design a system where the average loss is $487.50 it wouldn't be difficult. We can absolutely control the size of our losses and we must be certain that we do.
由于我们必须应对所有上面提到的以及其他更多情况，毫不奇怪我们的退出策略往往比入市策略更复杂。我们必须准备好解决市场给我们提出的难题。正如我早先提到的，损失几乎不能算得上是一个问题，因为我们能简单的通过设置止损点来控制我们的损失，如果止损点被触发，我们就退出交易。我们又一次面对控制力的问题，我们很高兴的知道我们能在很大程度上控制我们自己的损失。如果我们想设计一个系统，其平均损失不超过487.50$，很容易做到。在损失规模上我们有绝对的控制力，我们必须确保我们能做到这一点。
All of our exit strategies have to be carefully planned to be certain that we control what can be controlled. First we must recognize and understand what can be controlled and then we must make certain that we exercise whatever control we have. It may be comforting to know that we can strictly control losses but it is extremely discomforting to realize that we have very little control of our profits. If we have a $500 profit, how do we make it become a $1000 profit? Unfortunately holding on to the trade longer gives us no assurance that we will eventually have a $1,000 profit.
我们必须精心制定我们的每一个退出策略以确保我们能控制好我们所能控制的。首先我们必须认识并理解那些我们能控制的部分，并确保我们真正做到这一点。高兴的是我们能严格控制损失，但十分失望的是我们很少能控制我们的利润。如果我们有500$盈利，我们该怎么做才能使盈利变为1000$。不幸的是，延长持仓时间并不能保证我们最终能获得1000$盈利。
In this instance we have very little control but let's see what we can do with the control that we do have. Although the amount of profits can not be controlled in the sense of our somehow forcing them to be larger, they can be controlled in the sense that we don't have to let them become smaller or turn into losses. Those of you who have purchased any of our systems will appreciate that locking in open profits at various levels is important to the success of our trading strategies. You will notice that in the "25 X 25" Bond System (free on the web site) we use a very tight channel to help lock in profits after twenty-five days or after five Average True Ranges of profit. We can't control the market and force it to give us five ATRs of profit, but if it does we can make sure that we keep most of it. Protecting our open profits is definitely within our control.
面对盈利，我们的控制力很小，但让我们看看我们确实拥有的控制力能让我做些什么。尽管从促使盈利增大的角度来说，我们无法控制我们盈利的大小，但从防止赢利变小或变成损失的角度来说，我们能控制我们盈利的大小。那些购买过我们交易系统的人将会认识到锁定各种水平的浮动盈利对交易策略的成功来说非常重要，并注意到我们在"25 X 25" Bond系统中使用一种非常狭窄的区间帮我们在25天后或者在获得5倍ATRs的盈利后锁定浮动盈利。我们不能控制市场，我们也不能强迫市场给我们5倍ATRs的盈利，但我们能确保我们能获得大部分浮动盈利。无疑保护我们的浮动盈利在我们的控制范围之内。
When conceptualizing a new trading system and when going through the design and testing routine, be alert to issues of control. Look for what you can control and make sure that you are controlling it to your benefit. Look at what you can not control and as a minimum have some plan that will minimize any possible damage. Thinking about control will make you a better trader and implementing control will make your systems trade better.
在构思交易系统时，在检查系统时，在检验系统时，要注意控制问题。关注你所能控制的并确保将事情往有利于你自己的方向发展。关注你不能控制的部分，并制定计划将可能的伤害降到最低。思考控制问题会使你成为一个更好的交易者，实现控制力将会使你的系统交易的更成功。
点评：
1、原文写得那么长，反反复复，其实说的意思很简单，在交易中最好控制的是入场时机、其次是止损出场和止赢时机，最难控制的是如何持仓让盈利变大。这里引出一个选择问题，我们是把重点放在简单的部分上，控制我们所能控制的，做我们所能做的（也即入场，然后等着止损或者止赢），还是把重点放在有难度的部分上，学会如何让盈利变大？原文作者显然倾向于前者，但就我个人现在的观点来看，我倾向于不要斤斤计较于3％，5％或者10％的止损，我认为交易的重点不是如此这般的止损，甚至我认为在某一品种上亏损50％或者百分之七八十都没关系，关键是学会如何拥有盈利100％、300％的品种。
2、第一篇“离市的重要性”，可以让我们思考在交易系统检验中要注意的问题，并可以马上设计计算机程序来检验我们的一些想法。这篇“理解控制”，似乎并不能马上在实践中检验我们的一些想法。比如如何鉴别能带来几倍盈利的品种，如何在不增加交易频率的情况下获得长期趋势的大部分盈利。
3、ATR是一个常见的指标，平均单根K线中的价格波动幅度。5倍ATR确实是个不错的获利目标，通常也是较大的利润。他自己说的也不是完全同类的现象，我这么理解：跳空缺口，反转，停板，拉锯，甚至更差的情况：令人厌烦到想撤资他投的横向移动。市场也许展现给我们价内日，价外日，反转日，关键反转日，天量日，地量日，扩张的区间，收缩的区间，加速和减速。其实有关持仓的问题江恩说的比较清楚：不要因为不耐烦而出市，要确认趋势确实已经逆转再迅速平仓。